Your home for sensible real estate facts and viewpoints for making the most of your Phoenix Metropolitan Area real estate transactions. Hosted by Mike and Susanne Garland.
Cool weather and low interests make for a great Fall buying season. Some excerpts from this month’s infographic from The Cromford Report:
For buyers – “The 4th quarter is a good time to be a buyer seasonally. After April or May, buyer activity gradually declines every month with the 4th quarter seeing the lowest level of contracts in escrow. This is typical within all price ranges.”
For sellers – “Expect price reductions to remain high as sellers push to get their properties under contract before Thanksgiving.”
Download the details here: How’s the Market, November 2017
We continue to see strong demand and shortage of inventory in the $300 and below market. There is a one big change, however:
Per Cromford Report:
“There are more people willing to put their home on the market in the higher price ranges however. New listings over $600K were up nearly 10% in the 3rd Quarter and sales were up an impressive 27%.”
Like to know specific data for your zip and price range? Let us know. We can pull the data for you. Contact us here.
Some people say there is nowhere hotter than Phoenix in the summer. When it comes to the residential housing market, there may be hotter markets, but the Valley of the Sun remains a busy place. Interesting to note that on two listings of hottest markets nationwide, the Phoenix area does not show at all:
That said, there is still strong demand and a shortage of lisitings. Get the facts here on with the latest update from the good people at Cromford Associates, LLC .
-->> Download the .pdf here <<---
It is no secret that the market is hot again this summer. Buyers looking at homes should start early in the day and bring plenty of water! More importantly, they should make the most of their online portal to the MLS that we, as REALTORS® can offer. That will save countless hours of viewing in the heat.
In addition to the temperature, the Phoenix Valley real estate market continues to be hot with 6.1% appreciation over last year. It appears sellers are slowing for the summer, however. We see a 12.3% decline in active listings over the last year.
See the attached infographic and commentary from The Cromford Report for more insight into how buyers and builders are responding to shortage of quality homes available for purchase.
The NCAA Final Four has just wrapped up here in town. The championship is set. It's North Carolina vs. Gonzaga. So much for basketball. When it comes to residential real estate, the brackets are still open. We see from the latest Cromford Report Infographic that the number of listing continues to sink (15.1% over the last 12 months), while prices continue to inch up (9%) and more buyers continue to vie for the limited inventory.
On top of this, we can expect even more demand with the ongoing growth of Maricopa County population. AZCentral recently reported that the US Census Bureau has identified Maricopca Country as the fastest growing US county. According to the article – Maricopa County gained most of its new residents by having more people relocate from elsewhere in the U.S.
Click here for more detail and commentary from the Cromford Report.
Click here for the AZ Central article.
Adele sweeps the 59th annual Grammy Awards, leaving Beyoncé in the glamour dust. And so we see home sellers gaining in this market, leaving buyers in the dust to scramble for quality homes. Demand remains strong, fueled by more qualified buyers nationwide. In addition, we see the ongoing popularity of the Phoenix Valley as a home for employers who are hiring and for snowbirds who continue to flock here.
Per my favorite source, The Cromford Report, we see a 4.5% increase in listings-under-contract from a year ago, with a healthy 6.6% increase in average sales price. What is troubling is the 9.3% decrease in the number of listings compared to last year. That’s the leading indicator of a market where buyers and their REALTORS will be spending a lot of time trying to find the right home.
The other result of this tight, appreciating market is that buyers are willing to offer top dollar for their dream home. The appraisals though may be low, causing frustration for both buyers and sellers. Currently, there is a nationwide appraiser shortage with no immediate solution in sight. So professional appraisers are struggling to deliver accurate appraisals in this demanding market.
One other interesting fact that may impact the market: the popular Down Payment Assistance Program (DPA) known as Pathway to Purchase is running out of funds. The $48 million commitment from the US Treasury is due to be depleted in March 2017 according to the Arizona Department of Housing website. This will reduce demand from many first time home buyers who have good credit but lack the several thousand dollars required for their down payment.
Enjoy this latest infographic from the Cromford Report team. Don’t miss the commentary on page 2! If you would like a slice of the data specific to your zip code and/or price range, contact me and let’s chat.
One question REALTORS® hear at every gathering is, “So, how’s the market?”
We all know that the question refers to the real estate market, but the meaning is not always clear. This type of query often stymies me, since there is no one answer other than, “It depends.” In an effort to prepare my answer for the next time I am asked, and to educate my readers, here is one cool infographic with three areas – listings, sales, and days on market - to help explain how it may apply to your personal view point.
Each month, the respected team from the Cromford Report prepares a thorough analysis of data from the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) matched with over 20 years of similar data to create the market forecast. I’ve included a link to it here. To REALTORS, mortgage and title professionals, corporate relocation professionals and others, this data will be useful and easy to digest. For everyone else, I’ve taken a few moments to interpret a few points in an effort to answer the question –“How’s the Market?”
Active listings and listings under contract – both numbers are down slightly from last year. This is an indicator that the selection of homes may be limited, therefore nice homes will go quickly. Until there is much more inventory (number of active listings) be prepared to respond quickly for the home you want.
The monthly median sales price in the Phoenix Metro area was up 5.1% over last year at this time. This is one indicator that we have a steady, moderate growth market. For homeowners it means there is some appreciation on their investment. For first time buyers, it means waiting a year to buy will likely mean the same home will cost more to buy next year.
The percentage of listings that closed successfully is an indicator of a few things:
Knowing the average length of time on the market helps set expectations for buyers and sellers. Average days on market for sold listings remained stable at 78 days, another indicator that our market is close to steady-state. In a particularly hot market, this metric decreases, as in July of 2005 when it reached 24.8 days, for example. On the other hand, it peaked at 138.3 days in the scary days of February 2008.
So, how’s the market? There are many variables and indicators to consider when looking at the market from your individual perspective. Today’s blog doesn’t even touch such items as variations by location in the Valley of the Sun, price range, mortage and tax considerations, government initiatives, etc. Bookmark this blog as we expose you to the very best information sources, such as the Cromford Report.
Here are three ways to learn more:
We wish you a wonderful 2017!
Mike and Susanne Garland
Steady as she goes for the overall Phoenix market with gentle annual appreciation (4.8%) and steady growth in listings (3.9%) fueled by ever more job growth and companies moving to the Valley. Arizona has been getting great press from Forbes last month and the New York Times this month.
Forbes Link: http://bit.ly/2bYUH0K
NYT Link: http://bit.ly/tpnyt2016
MARKET DATA: THE RAW DATA as of Aug 18, 2016
Paradise Valley/Cave Creek/Fountain Hills
Annual Appreciation: -1.7% / 14.6% / -3.8%
Recent Appreciation Trend: -6.1% / 10.1% / -3.8%
Caution, data from smaller cities varies greatly because of the limited number of transactions.
Annual Appreciation: 0.5% / 5.9%
Recent Appreciation Trend: -4.2% / 0.8%
Annual Appreciation: 6.65% / 2.1% / 6.2%
Recent Appreciation Trend: 2.0% / 1.4% / 0.5%
Overall Market Data (Data from Maricopa, Pinal and Yavapai County)
Annual Appreciation: 4.8%
Recent Appreciation Trend: 0.1% (Rate of Change)
Annual Sales: 3.5%
Active Listings: 3.9% (Change in Inventory Rate.)
Average Days On Market: 116 days
Months Of Supply: 3.3
We get our data directly from The Cromford Report, a subscription service.
You can access Q2-2016 ARMLS data here or ask us for particular data by city, zip or price range.